Anyone with any connection to gambling and punting will be interested in these papers by Allen Windross MA (Hons). Allen is a former head of the TAB in NSW (1987-1999) and holds a Masters in Gambling Studies awarded through the Australian Centre for Gambling Research and the University of Western Sydney. He has been a regular speaker at the annual conferences of the National Association of Gambling Studies and in 2003 gave a paper at the triennial gathering of the International Gambling and Risk-Taking Conference held that year in Vancouver, Canada. While he was with TAB Allen was a prolific writer of papers for casino and racing industry conferences around the world. Since he left TAB Allen has run Balmoral Consultancy Services. Gambling operators frequently call on Allen for advice regarding new products and he also consults to problem gambling counsellors so as to aid their understanding of the subject. In his time with TAB Allen invented many devices and systems including FootyTAB and Mystery Betting.
• Master’s Thesis by research at the University of Western Sydney and Australian Centre for Gambling Research: ‘Betting by the Book: A study of systems adopted by bettors’. Some 80,000 words in the thesis.
Mainly concerned with the practices of punters on thoroughbred racing but also canvasses other gambling. A synopsis of 2348 words is available titled ‘The Synopsis’.
• The Luck of the Draw: Superstition in Gambling. Total words 6129.
Looks at various superstitions in different forms of gambling including lotteries and racing. Paper to the National Association for Gambling Studies Conference, Melbourne November 2002. Published in Gambling Research, Vol. 15 (1) May 2003.
• Numerate or Naïve? – Gambling by Numbers and Statistics. Total words 5793.
Examines naïve behaviour amongst gamblers in various forms of gambling including casinos, gaming machines and racing. Paper to the National Association for Gambling Studies Conference, Canberra November 2003.
• LOGIC OR LUCK? - SOME GAMBLERS DO WIN! Total words 3959.
Describes how some gamblers consistently win in different forms of gambling. Paper to the National Association for Gambling Studies Conference, Gold Coast November 2004. "Published in
Gambling Research Vol 17 (2)."
• Defining and Expounding Responsible Gambling. Total words 3200.
Describes practical gambling techniques and how these techniques could be better communicated to gamblers. Paper to the National Association for Gambling Studies Conference, Alice Springs, November 2005.
• Putting the Mystery into Punting. Total words 3881.
How some apparently naive punting systems can be found to out-perform the logical. Paper to the National Association for Gambling Studies Conference, Sydney, November 2006.
• Applying some 'Back-adding' to Gambling Statistics.Total words 5204.
An examination of the multiple errors and misconceptions to be found in gambling reporting. Paper to the National Association for Gambling Studies Conference, Cairns, November 2007.
• Betting on Horse Racing: Is it a VICE? Total words 6080.
Looks at the history of horse racing and the extent of its intellectual challenge. Co-authored with Professor John O’Hara. Paper to the 12th International Conference on Gambling & Risk-Taking, Vancouver May 2003.
• TOTALIZATOR COMBINED POOLING, TAKEOUT RATES, AND MAJOR PUNTERS. Total words 9851.
Written in 2000.
• Betting Exchanges: should this new form of gambling be introduced to Australia? Total words 7718.
Written May 2004.
• Revisiting the Laffer Curve. Total words 4185.
Why the take-out or deductions on Win pool totalisator betting should be reduced.
Written August 2007
• Betting on Racing with some notes on other Gambling in Australia. Total words 7153.
Written March 2004.
• 25 ways to pick the Melbourne Cup Winner (including one certainty and another with a 148% profit since 1993). Total words 1013.
Updated after 2007 result.
• Analysis of Melbourne Cup Winners. Total words 1326.
A detailed profile analysis of all winners and runners of the Melbourne Cup from 1980 to date. Learn the standout success categories.
Written February 2008
• Barrier Positions Matter. Total words 853.
An analysis of why barrier positions are important. Extract: Barriers are obviously of importance in the minds of owners and trainers and the statistics show that their logic is valid. Therefore punters should also be aware of this as yet another factor of significance in the process of selecting a winner. [called article five]
• Getting the Weight Right. Total words 783.
Using a weighted ranking evaluation method in horse selection. Extract: It is a task just as difficult as picking your selection for the next Open Handicap at Royal Randwick. Faced with complex decisions smart businesses will use a logical and structured process. They won’t base the selection just on price, colour, size or because their competitors bought one. They want the task finished on time and within their own budget. A business process that is often used in these circumstances is selection by segmented weighted ranking. [called the title]
• Home Sweet Home. Total words 452.
The impact of home track on a horse’s performance. Extract: Do horses with the letter ‘h’ next to their name win a higher percentage of races than visitors? A period of greater than one year of Sydney Metropolitan racing was examined although races held at Canterbury Park were excluded as these days the Club does not allow training at the track. [called article thirteen]
• Horse Numbers do Count. Total words 907.
There are favourite and other biases in numbers for horses. Punters should be aware of these and what impact they will have on what a bet like the trifecta ‘should pay’. Extract: Awareness of these individual numbers and number sequence biases is of importance to all punters as they can cause great impacts on payout dividend values. Expecting a big dividend and then receiving a low payout can be shattering. Punters need to be aware of the superstitious practices of their peers. [called article One]
• It Pays to have a Good Pilot. Total words 520.
The extent to which punters should have regard for the jockey in a race. Extract: The question for punters is what impact should a top jockey have on the bet selection process? As in all aspects of punting historical statistics can provide an answer. In 416 races over more than a year of Sydney Metropolitan racing leading jockeys had some 63% or 2787 of the total rides. They achieved 70% of all winners. Thus non-leading jockeys had 37% of rides and only 30% of winners. Not huge differences but nonetheless a positive margin for the leaders. [called article eleven]
• I’ve got a Tip for You. Total words 851.
What happens when tips are given on a race. Extract: Tips come from many sources and can in certain circumstances be valuable information for a punter but none will influence the results of any race. The tips will, however, certainly influence the money outcome in any race. [called article four]
• Let’s make Emus an Endangered Species. Total words 683.
Sets out why punters should always keep and double-check their betting tickets. Extract: A very wise man once advised the writer never to throw any tickets away on the day of the races. ‘Put them in your pocket and check them carefully in the cold light of next morning’, he urged. For betting places can be very distracting. The entertainment is pretty well constant. Throw in a few drinks and some amusing company and there is the recipe for missing a betting payout for even the most cautious of punters. [called article seven]
• Limit or Minimum Weighted Horses. Total words 309.
A study of the results of horse races based on the handicapper’s allotment of weight. Extract: It can be concluded that the horses with higher weights do perform better and thus justify the decisions of the handicappers. If a punter is following a weighted ranking evaluation methodology then Over horses should receive a point or points in their favour. [called title]
• Money doesn’t grow on Trees. Total words 721.
Where the money comes and goes in gambling transactions. Extract: For every winner on the racecourse there will be a loser or losers and this is true of all forms of gambling. But don’t forget that this is equally true of most things in life. Every time you make a profit on the stock market or in selling a property there will be someone that either loses directly or loses the opportunity to profit. [called article six]
• Put it in Writing. Total words 539.
Why punters should keep a record. Extract: This is a very simple example of a record of betting. If some different bet types and other race meetings are added, the record will be somewhat more complex but still capable of the essential financial and selection analysis. Once the record is maintained over a reasonable period of time, patterns or trends will be obvious. It is this information that can turn an unsuccessful punter into a winning one. [called article nine]
• Put the Percentages in their Place. Total words 461.
A review of the importance of win and place percentage strike rates. Extract: On the day of the above selected example the 16 Metropolitan races in Sydney and Melbourne saw four winners with a place percentage below 50 and 12 with 50 or more. Seven of the winners had a place percentage over 66. This suggested that a more comprehensive survey should be undertaken. A period of more than one year of Sydney Metropolitan Saturday and Public Holiday meetings was examined. [called article fourteen]
• Set Weight and other Races. Total words 630.
The performance of horse number one in different race classifications. Extract: It is concluded that the adage to follow number one, or at least numbers one to four, in races remains valid but caution should be applied not in set weight races but rather in Group and Listed handicaps. [called title]
• The First Fifteen. Total words 662.
The top factors involved in horse betting selections. Extract: This is not an essay on sports betting or about a team of football players selected by the Australian Rugby Union. Rather it details the detection of the 15 factors most recommended for use in selecting winners for thoroughbred racing. [called article twelve]
• The Old Favourites. Total words 607.
An analysis of the value of following the form guide designators T, C and D. Extract: It is likely that profitable betting systems could be developed around horses that carry a single t after their name. A staking plan would be required, however, as there was one period in the survey when t horses failed to win their races on 11 consecutive occasions. [called article three]
• Top Trainers are Terrific. Total words 750.
Top trainers do get the best results. Extract: Obviously though there is nothing to be gained by merely backing every starter entered by a leading trainer. For no one sets out to achieve a loss of 10% on outlay. Exclude from betting, however, those horses from leading trainers that were listed at $21 or greater in the form guide pre-post price assessments and the data in the survey changes to the positive. [called article ten]
• Was it Placed Last Start? Total words 983.
Should punters have regard to where a horse finished at its last start? Extract: It was then decided to examine the outcome for horses that were not placed first, second or third at their last start but that had finished that race within three lengths of the winner. A total of 569 horses met these criteria. Of these 67 won their race. A $1 bet returned a grand total of an exact $802, an average dividend of $11.95 and a profit of $233. Lowest dividend was $1.80 and highest $30.30. The profit is 41% on outlay. [called article two]
• Where’s the Plan? Total words 908.
Punters need to adopt and hold to a staking plan. Extract: In just about every facet of life there is a reasonable expectation in society that we should plan our activities. Where and when to have a holiday? What age to retire and what income will be needed? A complete list would be a very long one. Gambling including punting should not be missing from the planning list. A gambling or punting plan has two elements. How to go about selecting the bet is the first element but the second and more important is the staking plan. How much money to put down? When to start and stop? What to do following a win or loss? [called article eight]
The papers can be accessed by the payment of the fees listed here:
Thesis, Presentations to Academic Conferences, Business Case Studies and Notes for Problem Gambling Counsellors. The charge for each paper is $10.00 USD
Ideas on the Melbourne Cup and General Ideas for Gamblers especially Horse-race Punters. The charge for each paper is $1.00 USD, except for the Melbourne Cup Analysis which is $5.00 USD or for all papers $15.00 USD
All prices are for email delivery, if postal delivery is required add an additional $5.00 USD on each order for printing and postage
Page best viewed in 1024 x 768 pixels in version 4 or above of Internet Explorer
Copyright © 2005 - 2007. Balmoral Consultancy Services
DISCLAIMER :- Balmoral Consultancy Services does not claim to have any affiliations with the companies and organisations listed on it's website, as such it is not responsible for the results of any defects that may be found to exist within the listed web sites, or any lost profits or other consequential damages that may result from such defects. You should not assume that the Balmoral Consultancy Services web site is error-free.